Taken from an Italian word meaning “a locked room,” a conclave is quite literally closed off from the outside world. But that doesn’t mean that events happening beyond the Sistine Chapel aren’t on the cardinal-electors’ minds as they begin their period of sequester.

Two issues likely on the minds of the 133 papal vote-casters when the conclave begins on May 7 are German same-sex blessings and the Vatican-China accord. 

This isn’t by accident. Instead, it’s the result of a pair of recent developments from outside of Rome that are undoubtedly meant to shape the conversations that are taking place in the Vatican right now — and the votes that will be cast in less than a week.

First, on April 23, just two days after Pope Francis died, the German Bishops’ Conference published a guide for “blessing ceremonies” of couples in “irregular situations” — including same-sex unions. Securing formalized blessings of same-sex couples has long been a goal of Germany’s much-criticized Synodal Way campaign, and the latest move defies Fiducia Supplicans, the Vatican’s 2023 guidance on the subject that allows only for “spontaneous” blessings of persons who happen to be in same-sex relationships, not “legitimation of [the couple’s] status.”

Then, despite there being no pope to ratify episcopal appointments, Chinese authorities “elected” two new bishops on April 28, including one in a diocese already led by a Vatican-recognized bishop. The development is the latest in a string of questionable outcomes since the Vatican signed a 2018 agreement to engage in a joint process with the Chinese government on episcopal appointments, an accord that the Vatican has acknowledged has been repeatedly abused, yet nonetheless renewed in 2024.

At this stage in the process of selecting the next pope, it’s hard to imagine that either of these developments occurred without those responsible intending to influence the conclave. 

The interregnum — Latin for “between reigns” — is a time when much of the Church’s institutional life comes to a standstill. The heads of Vatican dicasteries cease to hold office, canonization processes are suspended, and the appointment of new papal diplomats is temporarily halted. Any movement during this period is not accidental — it has heightened significance and is meant to have an impact.

In fact, the period between the death of the pope and the start of the sequester is often marked by intense efforts to influence the papal electors — whether through media campaigns or provocations like those coming from Germany and China.

And not without reason: There’s good evidence that events in the days leading up to a conclave can influence who emerges wearing white. 

For instance, in 2013, it was widely believed that Cardinal Angelo Scola’s papal prospects took a hit after Italian police raided offices across his archdiocese as part of a corruption probe involving one of the Milanese cardinal’s former associates — just hours before the conclave began on March 12. And in 1914, the papal conclave began just three days after the outbreak of World War I, possibly influencing the cardinals to choose the experienced diplomat Cardinal Giacomo della Chiesa, who became Pope Benedict XV.

In fact, the possibility of cardinal-electors being overly influenced by events and pressure campaigns preceding the conclave has led some to suggest that they should be sequestered immediately upon the death of a pope.

In Germany, the message to the cardinal-electors seems clear: The Synodal Way is not slowing down, and they’d do well to elect a pontiff who is willing to “meet the Germans where they’re at” — which is increasingly beyond the scope of Catholic orthodoxy.

With regard to China, the move may be aimed at solidifying its upper hand in the accord with the Vatican, making any reversal seem too risky for Chinese Catholics. At the same time, one analyst sees China’s attempt to stir discontent about the accord among the cardinals as a strategic move to undermine the papal prospects of the man most associated with it, Pope Francis’ secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, in order to elevate Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.

If this is true, China isn’t the only one trying to diminish Cardinal Parolin’s standing right before the conclave. The Italian prelate has been the subject of a number of negative media portrayals this week, including from two progressive Catholic outlets in the U.S.

As for the moves made by Germany and China, both can be seen as attempts to box in the cardinal-electors and the man they pick to be the next pontiff.

Of course, they may have the opposite effect. This kind of ecclesial saber-rattling could prompt the cardinal-electors to favor a pope more willing than Pope Francis to confront German intransigence and Chinese bullying.

Francis valued dialogue with both the Synodal Way activists and Chinese Communist Party apparatchiks, believing that breakthroughs can happen only when you’re still in conversation. But in the wake of these latest developments, the case can now more easily be made among the cardinals that this approach hasn’t borne desired fruit. A new course of action — one that is perhaps less willing to accept breaches of agreements or the crossing of bright red lines — could be favored by the electors, ironically leading to the exact opposite outcome of what German Church leaders and Chinese officials may have intended.

Of course, perhaps such a confrontation is what China — if not the German bishops — is ultimately aiming for.

But while motives and their actual impact may be unclear, the sede vacante shake-ups from Germany and China are undoubtedly meant to affect the conclave. And with the days waning before the 133 electors are locked away, expect efforts to influence the perspectives they bring with them into the Sistine Chapel to pick up.