VATICAN CITY — Voting in the Sistine Chapel is now well underway with two votes taking place on Thursday morning, each producing no result, and two ballots scheduled for the afternoon.

Three of the last five popes have been elected on the second day. In 1978, John Paul I was elected on the fourth ballot of that year’s conclave. The same was true of Pope Benedict XVI in 2005, also on the fourth attempt. Pope Francis was also elected on the second day, on the fifth ballot, on the evening of March 13, 2013.

But this conclave has been widely predicted to take longer due to various factors including the participation of the largest number of cardinal electors in history, their wide and varied backgrounds, and the fact that many do not know each other at all well.

The cardinals have also been widely reported to be significantly divided going into this conclave, with talk of at least “five groups” of cardinals in favor of continuing Francis’ direction, each one supporting a different candidate. A bloc wanting to take the Church in an alternative direction to the Francis pontificate is also expected to play a role and at least potentially delay a result.

Various new names are starting to circulate who have not been seriously considered papabili until now, demonstrating the distinct unpredictability of this conclave and the very real possibility of a surprise.

The odds of two Spanish cardinals being elected are reportedly rising, at least according to some Spanish media. They are Cardinals Cristóbal López Romero, 72, of Rabat, Morocco, and Ángel Fernández Artime, 64, a former head of the Salesians and pro-prefect of the dicastery for religious.

There is also continued talk of the first possible pope from Asia, whose number of cardinal electors has over doubled since 2013, from 10 to 24. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, is often mentioned. 

The former pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, whose maternal grandmother was Chinese, would be expected to continue Francis’ vision for the Church. In his position as pro-prefect, the cardinal has played an instrumental role in vetting and appointing bishops and cardinals in recent years which also helps to increase his chances, some observers say. 

Another Asian cardinal said to be emerging is Pablo Virgilio David, archbishop of Kalookan, also in the Philippines. Aged 66 and elevated to cardinal only last December, the cardinal would continue to take the Church in a distinctly Francis direction. Cardinal David has said he is not in favor of the traditional feast of Christ the King and has become well known for recently writing an extensive defense of Judas Iscariot.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, secretary of state during Pope Francis’ pontificate, continues to be identified by some as the frontrunner. As the pope’s “right-hand man,” five secretaries of state have gone on to become Pope in the history of the Church, always at key moments when the Church was looking for a leader with experience, authority, and a solid network of alliances. All of them have been, like Parolin, Italian. The last one was Cardinal Eugenio Pacelli, who was elected Pope Pius XII in 1939.

The media was also alerted about comments by Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, dean of the College of Cardinals, caught on a hot mic during the exchange of peace at Wednesday’s Mass. Cardinal Re can be heard saying “auguri doppio” (double best wishes) to Cardinal Parolin, setting off speculation as to whether the remark could be construed as an endorsement of Cardinal Parolin’s candidacy.

As Cardinal Parolin is the perceived frontrunner, it is assumed that his election, if it happened, would take place early on in the voting. The conventional wisdom is that if he were unable to gain momentum and secure the necessary 89 votes (two-thirds majority) in the initial rounds of voting, he would fall back and other candidates would come to the fore.

In other developments, it appears that Cardinal John Njue, archbishop emeritus of Nairobi, will not, for the time being at least, be taking part in the conclave. The archdiocese had said he was not attending due to poor health. But in an interview with a local Kenyan newspaper, Njue denied being ill, saying, “I am not sick, I don’t know why I was excluded.” He also said he was not officially invited, but the Vatican told the media that he had been and that in any case, cardinals do not need invitations to attend.

The Vatican is not giving any reason for his absence, but it may have to do with age. For many years his birth date was indicated as 1944, but in 2024 it was officially changed to Jan. 1, 1946. Still, Universi Dominici Gregis, the document of regulations for the interregnum period, makes it clear that “no cardinal elector can be excluded from active or passive voice” in the election, and that he would have to be admitted to the vote if he wished. 

Meanwhile, reports this week that Cardinal Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga, a non-elector, had returned early to Honduras have been confirmed. He was not present at Wednesday’s Mass Pro Eligendo Romano Pontifice (Mass for the Election of a Roman Pontiff) in St. Peter’s Basilica. Italian media reported May 4 that he had returned to his homeland “bitter and disillusioned” and saying there were “too many turncoats” among cardinals appointed by Francis who had “betrayed” him by not backing Francis’ reforms. Cardinal Rodríguez, 82, was a leading figure in the campaign to have Pope Francis elected in 2013.

Judging by historical precedent over the past 100 years, several more rounds of black smoke may appear before the cardinal protodeacon, Cardinal Dominique Mamberti, steps out to proclaim Habemus papam! (We have a pope!).

It took Pius XI 14 ballots to be elected in 1922; 11 for John XXIII in 1958, 10 for Benedict XV in 1914, and eight for John Paul II in 1978.