For many Americans, adulthood no longer follows the predictable flow it once did. Finishing school, starting a career and achieving financial stability are increasingly prioritized over marriage and family — milestones that have long defined adult life.

That shift is having measurable consequences. The latest provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows the U.S. general fertility rate fell again in 2025, reaching 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44. About 3.6 million babies were born last year, down roughly 1% from 2024, continuing a decline that has now stretched across nearly two decades. Since its 2007 peak, the rate has fallen roughly 23%.

On the surface, these numbers are no longer surprising. But the most recent comparative data from 2023 reveals a more compelling story: Fertility among married women remains substantially higher than among unmarried women, even as overall fertility declines. Married women gave birth at a rate of 81.6 per 1,000 in 2023, compared with 36.4 per 1,000 among unmarried women.

Over the past several years, both married and unmarried fertility rates have declined, though not at the same pace. Married women’s birth rates fell from about 87.4 per 1,000 in 2017 to 80.8 in 2020, before edging up slightly by 2023. In contrast, unmarried women’s fertility declined more steadily, from roughly 41.0 per 1,000 in 2017 to 38.6 in 2020 and 36.4 in 2023. The gap between the two remained substantial.

For Catholics concerned about the future of parishes, parochial schools and other family-centered institutions, these patterns are critical. Leah Libresco Sargeant, a Catholic writer who covers religion and family policy, emphasized that what looks like a fertility problem is really a marriage problem.

“The data wasn’t so surprising,” she told the Register. “But I think it’s often not emphasized accurately that we don’t really have a fertility crash; we have an unmarried fertility drop.”

That distinction is more than a statistical nuance. It reflects whether marriage is still assumed to be a normal part of adult life — a question with direct consequences for Catholic parishes, schools and communities that rely on strong family engagement. 

Libresco Sargeant highlighted survey research supporting that concern. High-school students reported a declining confidence that they will eventually marry, or that they will be “marriageable.” This uncertainty, Libresco Sargeant said, can become self-reinforcing. “The more you’re doubtful of that,” she said, “the less reason there is to prioritize [marriage] and having children as you think about what your future could look like.”

Cultural trends also play a role. Libresco Sargeant pointed to the blurred lines between marriage and cohabitation, as well as the rise of dating apps that often prioritize convenience over relational depth.

The result is delayed marriage and childbearing. According to U.S. Census Bureau data from 2025, the median age at first marriage has risen to 30.8 for men and 28.4 for women, compared with 23.5 and 21.1 in 1975, respectively.

Many young adults wait until they feel fully prepared — financially, emotionally or professionally — only to find that the window for marriage, parenting and even grandparenting has narrowed. “People often think about what they can gain in the intervening time while they’re delaying,” she said, “but they don’t think about what they’re giving up on the back end.”

Catholic families are particularly affected by this shift. 

Recent data from the Official Catholic Directory shows that U.S. marriages have dropped dramatically over the past half-century. In 1970, about 426,000 Catholic marriages were recorded. By 2000, the number had fallen to roughly 267,000, and in 2025, provisional data showed just 108,000 married couples — a nearly 75% drop from more than five decades ago, even as the Catholic population has grown from 47.8 million in 1970 to 68 million today. 

As the Register highlighted in its special report on Catholic marriages in 2025, this decline is a serious problem for the Church. Parishes struggle to maintain vibrant family ministries, Catholic schools face declining enrollment and the sacramental life of the community is threatened when fewer young adults see marriage as an attainable or essential milestone.

While public policy can ease some economic barriers to starting a family, experts stressed that cultural shifts are the primary drivers. “It’s not just about money,” Libresco Sargeant said. “It’s about whether marriage is still seen as a meaningful, valued stage of life.”

Patrick Brown, a fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center who studies family and demographic trends, placed these changes in a larger context. He cautioned against attributing fertility decline to a single cause, emphasizing that modern prosperity has reshaped both marriage and the prospect of having children.

“We live in an increasingly wealthy society,” Brown told the Register. “You’re having to give up more to have a child than you did in a world where everyone was working on the farm.”

In practice, that has made family formation more deliberate — and more uneven. Brown noted that fertility declines have been especially prominent among unmarried women, women without a college degree and younger racial minorities, while college-educated women tend to delay rather than forgo children.

“They’re not getting married and they’re not having kids,” he added. “Those rates are certainly not near the numbers we used to see.” Brown described this as the central driver of the post-Great Recession fertility decline and a warning sign that shows “little evidence of stopping anytime soon.”

Still, he noted, there is a “silver lining”: Children who are born today are more likely than in previous decades to be born within marriage. For Catholics, that trend reinforces the importance of fostering marriage as both a spiritual vocation and a social institution — not only for the individuals involved but for the vitality of the Church as a whole, including practical, community-centered ways for couples to meet.

Recognizing the marriage crisis behind the CDC’s latest fertility statistics is a necessary step for addressing the challenges the Church now faces. For Libresco Sargeant, that moment calls for a confident, Catholic vision of what marriage offers. 

“As a married woman, I think marriage is great,” she said. “It shouldn’t be this ‘hard sell.’ We should approach marriage with a real sense of optimism in that we’re trying to invite people into this phase of life that is both challenging and beautiful.”