A March 10 article in The Christian Science Monitor argues that the current surge in the numbers of American Evangelicals is an illusory phenomenon.

According to “The coming evangelical collapse,” those numbers will soon plunge.

Why? Largely because Evangelicals have failed to articulate a doctrinal foundation for their faith that is capable of resisting the seductions of secularity, the article asserts; instead of a base of coherent Christian doctrine, Evangelicalism has largely defined itself by its identification with the “conservative” side in contemporary culture wars.

The article is written by Michael Spencer, who describes himself as “a postevangelical reformation Christian in search of a Jesus-shaped spirituality.”

It seems paradoxical that Spencer would make his case now, at a time when this week’s ARIS survey suggested the arrival of an American “Evangelical Moment.” As the Daily Blog reported yesterday here, the ARIS survey indicated that most growth among American Christians since 1990 has occurred among people who identify themselves as Evangelicals.

But this growth rests on a foundation of sand, Spencer insists.

“Within two generations, evangelicalism will be a house deserted of half its occupants,” he says. “In the ‘Protestant’ 20th century, Evangelicals flourished. But they will soon be living in a very secular and religiously antagonistic 21st century.”

Continues Spencer, “This collapse will herald the arrival of an anti-Christian chapter of the post-Christian West. Intolerance of Christianity will rise to levels many of us have not believed possible in our lifetimes, and public policy will become hostile toward evangelical Christianity, seeing it as the opponent of the common good.

“Millions of Evangelicals will quit. Thousands of ministries will end. Christian media will be reduced, if not eliminated. Many Christian schools will go into rapid decline. I’m convinced the grace and mission of God will reach to the ends of the earth. But the end of evangelicalism as we know it is close.”

Spencer enumerates seven specific reasons why an Evangelical collapse is imminent. At their center is the failure of Evangelicalism “to pass on to our young people an orthodox form of faith that can take root and survive the secular onslaught,” as Spencer puts it.

The Evangelical residue that will manage to survive in the face of rampant secularism will be comprised primarily of megachurches dedicated to the “prosperity Gospel” preached by megachurch pastors like Joel Osteen, according to Spencer.

“Expect evangelicalism to look more like the pragmatic, therapeutic, church-growth oriented megachurches that have defined success,” he says. “Emphasis will shift from doctrine to relevance, motivation, and personal success — resulting in churches further compromised and weakened in their ability to pass on the faith.”

Adds Spencer, “Two of the beneficiaries will be the Roman Catholic and Orthodox communions. Evangelicals have been entering these churches in recent decades and that trend will continue, with more efforts aimed at the ‘conversion’ of Evangelicals to the Catholic and Orthodox traditions.”

Spencer isn’t particularly happy at the prospect of Evangelical defections to the Catholic and Orthodox Churches, but it’s the prospect that Evangelicalism’s future will be dominated by exponents of the “prosperity Gospel” that he finds truly dispiriting.

“Will the coming collapse get Evangelicals past the pragmatism and shallowness that has brought about the loss of substance and power?” Spencer asks. “Probably not. The purveyors of the evangelical circus will be in fine form, selling their wares as the promised solution to every church’s problems. I expect the landscape of megachurch vacuity to be around for a very long time.

“Will it shake lose the prosperity Gospel from its parasitical place on the evangelical body of Christ? Evidence from similar periods is not encouraging. American Christians seldom seem to be able to separate their theology from an overall idea of personal affluence and success.”

But Spencer remains optimistic despite his prediction of an Evangelical collapse.

“Despite all of these challenges, it is impossible not to be hopeful,” Spencer writes. “As one commenter has already said, ‘Christianity loves a crumbling empire.’”

Continues Spencer, “We can rejoice that in the ruins, new forms of Christian vitality and ministry will be born. I expect to see a vital and growing house church movement. This cannot help but be good for an evangelicalism that has made buildings, numbers, and paid staff its drugs for half a century.

“We need new evangelicalism that learns from the past and listens more carefully to what God says about being His people in the midst of a powerful, idolatrous culture.”