VATICAN CITY — Predicting the next pope is, as one colleague once aptly put it, like throwing darts at a dartboard with a blindfold.

Although we have some idea who the prominent candidates are, knowing with any accuracy the cardinal who the members of the Sacred College will choose as the Successor of Peter is something of a fool’s errand.

Almost no Vaticanists, for example, had Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio on their lists in 2013. And the betting shops fare no better, with many giving some of the best odds for unlikely candidates or, in the case of this conclave, to cardinals over 80 who usually have the least chance of election.

This conclave will be especially hard to predict and could be lengthy as many of the cardinals come from the global south and are largely unknown.

That said, it is possible to list some of the candidates who appear to have the qualities needed for a pope, as well as other factors viewed as advantageous, such as their age, geographical location, theological leanings, experience and personal health.

It is also worth taking into account the old saying about papal elections that a “fat pope follows a thin one,” meaning a newly elected pontiff will probably be quite different in vision and theological leanings to his predecessor.

Another ancient aphorism is that a man who walks into a conclave as pope leaves as cardinal: in other words, expectations are often overturned. Even the fact that a pope appoints a large majority of cardinals does not guarantee that they will elect someone like him; sometimes to the contrary.

And contrary to common belief, the Holy Spirit doesn’t directly choose the next pope but leaves it to the free will of the cardinals to decide who, it is hoped, are open and obedient to the Holy Spirit’s inspirations.

Given these factors, here below is a general list of some cardinals widely considered to be prominent figures in the conclave. It is by no means a complete list nor a list of anyone’s personal favorites; just a selection of those who have generated discussion as possible candidates. (To read their extensive profiles, those of other papabili, and learn where they stand on particular issues, visit The College of Cardinals Report which, in the interests of full disclosure, I co-founded.)

Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdö, 72, the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, grew up under Communism — a traumatic experience that has significantly shaped him. A highly accomplished canon lawyer, he studied and taught in Rome and was a research fellow at the University of California in the mid-1990s. He has been primate of the Hungarian Church and, as a former president of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences, he understands the challenges of Christianity in secular Europe. He oversaw the controversial 2014 and 2015 synods on the family as general relator — a position often seen as a stepping stone to the papacy. Doctrinally orthodox in most areas, his legal skills will be important if the cardinals wish to reverse many of Francis’ changes and seek continuity with past popes such as Benedict XVI and St. John Paul II. He has a calm and reserved personality, can be timid and risk-averse, and avoids public controversy, preferring to focus on the Church’s spiritual and moral mission. He is a talented teacher, a profession for which he has great fondness, and sees the importance of the faith in combating authoritarian and totalitarian regimes. One of the “greatest things in life,” he said in 2024, is “ministering at the liturgy” as it involves passing on the faith and teaching it. A polyglot and admirer of Pope Paul VI, the cardinal was a favorite of the late Cardinal George Pell who saw him as a highly suitable Successor of Peter, someone he believed could restore order and focus the Church on her primary task: the salvation of souls.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican’s former Secretary of State, has emerged as a leading candidate. He has had no pastoral experience having always served as a Vatican diplomat. The Italian cardinal has played key roles in international negotiations, including relations with China, Venezuela, and the Middle East. He was a close and trusted advisor to Pope Francis, aligning with Francis’ vision of Church reform, and the only Francis appointee who remained in his post throughout the pontificate. Parolin was also a long-serving member of the C9 Council of Cardinals. A pragmatist and student of Cardinal Achille Silvestrini, a prelate known for dissenting from Church teaching, Cardinal Parolin focuses on dialogue, diplomacy and peaceful resolutions over emphasizing doctrine. He has said he views the Second Vatican Council as revolutionary — “the new paradigm of a world-dimension Church” that some are concerned would turn the Church into a permanent synod. The cardinal is known for his careful and measured communication style; he avoids controversy and works behind the scenes. At a time when cardinals hardly know one another, the cardinal is a very familiar figure which helps his chances. As well as his lack of pastoral experience, his other Achilles heel is the controversial 2018 Vatican-China provisional agreement strongly opposed by Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-Kiun and many others. He is firmly opposed to the Traditional Latin Mass and favors a greater role for women in the Church, but is opposed to ordaining women as deacons or priests.

Rome-born Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, the archbishop of Bologna, is a prominent figure on the center-left of the Catholic Church, and is often mentioned as a potential candidate for the papacy by those wanting a pope in full continuity with Francis. Known for his genial, accessible, and media-savvy approach, he has often been compared to Pope Francis in his emphasis on mercy and outreach, especially for the poor and the marginalized. Although not a trained diplomat, Cardinal Zuppi has been involved in international peace negotiations, particularly in Mozambique as a priest, and is very close to the Sant’Egidio lay community. Pope Francis sent him as his peace envoy on largely fruitless visits to Ukraine, Russia and the Middle East. The cardinal’s theology has been criticized on several fronts. He tries to appeal to all sides of the Church, and has even celebrated the Traditional Latin Mass, but his focus is distinctly on progressive politics, and he is known jokingly as “chaplain” to Italy’s center-left PD party. Cardinal Zuppi is involved in helping the poor, migrants and marginalized communities, including those with same-sex attraction. He has shown a particular focus on LGBTQ issues, supporting same-sex blessings. On other issues, according to the College of Cardinals Report, he is in favor of making priestly celibacy optional, restricting the TLM, focusing on climate change, reassessing Humanae Vitae, Communion for remarried divorcees, and promoting a synodal Church.

Cardinal Willem Eijk,71, the archbishop of Utrecht, is a well-known theologically conservative Dutch prelate. A firm defender of traditional Catholic teachings, especially on moral and ethical issues such as euthanasia and same-sex “marriage,” and a long-serving member of the Pontifical Academy for Life, Cardinal Eijk is a former physician who has a deep knowledge of bioethics, making him well-suited to address modern medical-moral challenges. He has led the Dutch Church through difficult times including declining Church attendance in the Netherlands and church closures. As a young bishop, he successfully faced down opposition from LGBTQ groups by holding the line on the Church’s teaching on homosexuality — a trial that negatively affected his health. This, together with leading the Church in an increasingly secular Netherlands, has helped him understand the struggles of Christianity in modern Europe. During the Covid pandemic, the cardinal drew on his medical background to strongly support vaccination despite concerns over safety and efficacy. Cardinal Eijk is known for his disciplined, structured, and sometimes austere leadership style. Over the years, he has become used to sometimes vehement criticism for his unabashed adherence to the Faith in all its facets, providing an example for pastors who desire to “feed the flock” given them by Christ, no matter what wolves may be prowling around.

Franciscan Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the patriarch of Jerusalem, has a personality rooted in his simple, rural Lombardy upbringing, which instilled in him a sense of sobriety and sincerity that later found fulfillment in Franciscan life. Shaped by a strong early vocation and the influence of a beloved local priest, he is known for his frankness, decisiveness, and discernment. Little is known about the cardinal’s theology or doctrinal positions partly because he rarely addresses controversial issues, but it is possible to discern a genuine desire to abide by the orthodox traditions and practices of the Church while remaining open to modernity. His experiences in the Holy Land, beginning with a challenging arrival during the First Intifada, have fostered a deep understanding of the region's complexities and a commitment to interreligious dialogue, particularly with the Jewish community. Pizzaballa rose to prominence weeks after he had been made a cardinal in 2023 when he said he was ready to offer himself as a hostage in exchange for the release of the children who had fallen into the hands of Hamas terrorists. As a leader, he is unafraid to speak out and strives to treat the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with equanimity, while showing particular sympathy for the Palestinian people. He possesses a disdain for clericalism, a concern for social justice, and a passion for Holy Scripture, all tempered by a deep Franciscan spirituality. If, as some speculate, the papacy will return to the Italians for a period of calm, Pizzaballa may be the Italian they choose. The cardinal, who turned 60 the day Pope Francis died, could be considered too young to be elected but appears destined for higher office in the future.

Emerging as a possible contender is Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech, 68, who currently serves as secretary general of the secretariat for the Synod of Bishops and so is naturally a strong proponent of synodality. He was favored by Francis and known for his generally friendly and accessible style, but his episcopal life has been marked by controversy. Early in his career, Cardinal Grech was known for theologically conservative stances, such as opposing the legalization of divorce in Malta. However, his approach changed after Pope Francis' election, and he began showing support for such matters as same-sex unions, though remaining steadfast in opposition to abortion. He favors a female diaconate. Grech played a central role in drafting a controversial document that appeared to be more lenient on allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive Communion than Amoris Laetitia. Critics accused him of heavy-handed tactics during its implementation. More recently, Cardinal Grech has faced criticism for denouncing 85 bishops who had criticized the divisive German Synodal Way, calling their criticism “unhelpful” and “polarizing” while expressing confidence that the German synodal leaders “know what they are doing.” Controversies and past criticisms of his governance aside, he remained a trusted and loyal confidant of Pope Francis with whom he shares a very similar vision for the future of the Church. He has generally a good rapport with the media, and during the synods was largely open and willing to field questions critical of the process and concerns it was being used as a vehicle to undermine Catholic teaching and Protestantize the Church.

Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah is known for his deep faith, intellectual rigor, and unwavering commitment to traditional Catholic doctrine, which resonate with orthodox Catholic faithful worldwide. The author of several highly acclaimed books and a former prefect of the Dicastery for Divine Liturgy and the Discipline of the Sacraments, Cardinal Sarah is well-known for his personal sanctity and love for the Church. He is admired for having a fearless, prophetic voice, combined with a measured outspokenness in defending the Faith for which he has become well known, especially with regard to the Church’s moral teaching. His experience in resisting a Marxist dictatorship in Guinea, where he was placed on the dictator Ahmed Sékou Touré’s death list, is often credited for the cardinal’s sensitivity in knowing when to boldly speak out and when to keep quiet. He favors a “reform of the reform” when it comes to the liturgy — to refine the Second Vatican Council’s teaching on the liturgy in order to end abuses. As an African cardinal, his election would represent a historic shift. Cardinal Sarah almost missed out on taking part in this year’s conclave as he turns 80 in June. His criticisms of aspects of Francis’ pontificate, although widely shared among practicing faithful, could work against him if they fail to resonate with the cardinal electors. But he remains popular, and despite having lost his status in the Church with his retirement in 2021, Cardinal Sarah has gained recognition as a steadfast defender of the faith. If he were to be elected pope, which would appear unlikely given the makeup of the electorate, he would be the first African Successor of Peter since Pope Gelasius I in the fifth century.

Cardinal José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, 59, is seen by his supporters as a potential driver of making Pope Francis’ direction for the Church more permanent and building upon them by making other significant changes. A poet, biblical scholar and educator in his native Portugal, Cardinal Tolentino grew up in Portuguese-governed Angola. He has served in significant academic and ecclesiastical roles, culminating in serving as prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Education under Pope Francis. Cardinal Tolentino, as he is usually known, has had a meteoric rise and grew to particular prominence in 2018 when Pope Francis chose him to preach the spiritual exercises for the Roman Curia. Four months later, he appointed him as archivist and librarian of the Holy Roman Church; a year later he was made a cardinal and appointed to several Vatican dicasteries. The cardinal has attracted attention for “welcoming all” people including same-sex couples. He has also allied himself with a feminist Benedictine sister, Sister Teresa Forcades, who promoted abortion, women’s ordination, “queer theology” and same-sex “marriage.” Cardinal Tolentino wrote a preface to one of her books and she helped launch one of his works. He has never disavowed his support for her writings. He is a passionate and prolific reader and lover of literature; his poetry is highly regarded by Portuguese literati, but mainly in the secular sphere rather than religious. His role as dicastery prefect and his connection with influential groups such as the Community of Sant’Egidio, the United Nations, and allies in the Roman Curia, place him firmly in the more modernist sector of the College.

Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, former prefect of the influential Dicastery for Bishops since April 2023, is a Chicago-born prelate who spent many years as a missionary in Peru before being elected head of the Augustinians for two consecutive terms. Aged 69, he is closely aligned with Pope Francis’ vision regarding the late pope’s pastoral priorities, especially regarding environmentalism, outreach to the poor and migrants, and a pastoral approach that emphasizes meeting people where they are. He has publicly stated that bishops should not act as “little princes sitting in their kingdoms.” Cardinal Prevost backed the decision to allow divorced and civilly remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion in certain cases. He showed mild support for the Vatican’s 2023 document Fiducia Supplicans stressing the role of bishops’ conferences in applying it. The Chicago-born cardinal has faced controversy related to handling of clergy sexual abuse cases, but has been vigorously defended in the face of the accusations. He is known for his discreet and thoughtful approach, and has been praised by peers for his attentive listening skills, ability to synthesize complex issues, and judicious questioning. Cardinal Prevost is being promoted as a possible compromise candidate if leading candidates are unable to obtain enough votes. His lengthy missionary service in Peru, first as a priest and later as a bishop over a total of 22 years, allows him to be seen more as an international candidate than an American one, which mitigates choosing a pope from a superpower in his case. However, he might be considered too young and too recently made a cardinal (2023) to be seriously considered papabile with any significant chance of being elected.

Widely respected but considered an outlier partly due to his impassioned but respectful criticisms of Pope Francis is American Cardinal Raymond Burke. Aged 76 and from Richland Center, Wisconsin, Cardinal Burke is one of the Church’s foremost canon lawyers known for his traditional and orthodox views and willingness to uphold the Church’s magisterium. A former prefect of the Apostolic Signatura, Burke is traditional on the liturgy, moral teachings, and Church discipline, has been a vocal critic of theological interpretations that dissent from the magisterium, and is seen as a leader among those wanting to uphold apostolic tradition. He scores highly in all three munera of a bishop: to teach, sanctify and govern, and uphold the Church’s moral teaching. The cardinal has not hesitated to challenge high-ranking Church officials, including Pope Francis during his pontificate, on issues such as divorced and civilly remarried Catholics and pro-abortion Catholic politicians receiving Holy Communion, those pushing towards the normalization of homosexuality in the Church, and other such matters. He has paid a price for his faithfulness, not only losing his position as prefect of the Apostolic Signatura and patron of the Order of Malta, but also, the Register has subsequently learned, by Francis cutting his salary and health insurance, and significantly increasing rent on his Vatican apartment. The cardinal is a strong proponent of the Traditional Latin Mass (Tridentine Rite) and has defended its place in the Church, especially when Pope Francis restricted its use. His chances of being elected pope are considered slim given that many cardinals have been chosen by Pope Francis and share the late pope’s views, and because a cardinal from a superpower is usually not considered. However, he is included here because so many practicing faithful often say they would like him as pope even if they are aware his election is improbable. A very protracted conclave could possibly increase his chances, but an influential kingmaker role is far more likely.