December 9, 2011
Ron Paul Has Real Chance of Becoming GOP Nominee
NIA believes that the free market is the number one predictor of the future. We pay a lot of attention to the web site Intrade.com which allows investors to place bets on current events by buying shares on the outcome. Right now on Intrade for the cost of $4.69 you can buy shares that Mitt Romney will become the Republican Presidential Nominee. If Romney is victorious, your shares will become worth $10 and you will more than double your money. If Romney doesn’t win the nomination, your shares will become worthless and you will lose your entire investment.
With shares in Romney costing $4.69 it means Romney has a 46.9% chance of winning. Back on November 14th shares in Romney cost $7.15 meaning he had a 71.5% chance of winning. In the last three weeks, Romney has gone from being an overwhelming favorite to no longer having a majority of support.
Along with Romney collapsing, so has Cain who dropped out of the race. Cain had a 9.5% chance of winning on October 15th, but now has only a 0.1% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Rick Perry was exposed as being the phony candidate from Texas. Perry’s support has collapsed from 39.4% on September 3rd to only 2.1% today.
With Romney, Cain, and Perry collapsing, where has all of their support gone? Newt Gingrich’s chances of winning have increased from a low of 0.8% on September 27th to 33.3% today. Ron Paul’s chances of winning have increased from a low of 2.2% on November 8th to 7.4% today. Jon Huntsman’s chances of winning have increased from a low of 2.1% on November 7th to 7% today.
Iowa is the first GOP caucus and widely recognized as the first step in becoming the Republican nominee. Intrade doesn’t allow you to buy shares for the Iowa caucus, so we can only look at polling. A new PPP poll for the Iowa caucus just released on December 5th shows Gingrich in the lead with 27%, Paul in second with 18%, Romney in third with 16%, and Bachmann in fourth with 13%.
Rather than giving Ron Paul a serious chance of winning Iowa, the media is currently portraying Paul as a potential “spoiler”. The Washington Examiner published an article this week with the headline, “Ron Paul could complicate GOP’s two-horse race”. Despite Paul currently polling second place in the most important primary state, many mainstream media news reports about the election have been mentioning Ron Paul’s name before immediately saying, “who has no chance of winning the nomination.”
History has shown that just like in a horse race, Presidential candidates who take a big lead early on almost never win the nomination. Those who think Romney will win the nomination also thought that Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani were going to be the two nominees four years ago. If history is right and Romney doesn’t win the nomination, the winner will likely be either Gingrich or Paul.
NIA considers Gingrich to be unelectable and predicts that his support will evaporate as soon as voters learn the truth about him. Gingrich might as well be a Democrat. He would have zero chance of winning an election against Obama because voters would choose to go with the real thing. In the last Presidential election, voters only had a choice between two candidates who supported the government’s bailout of Wall Street. You would think that Americans today would only be supporting candidates who were strongly against the government’s bailout of Wall Street. Gingrich stated in 2008 that he “reluctantly and sadly” was supporting the $700 billion bailout of Wall Street. If Gingrich was the nominee, it will be a disaster for America because it will show that nobody in the U.S. has learned a thing.
Gingrich claims to have never favored cap-and-trade, but in 2007 he said that he would “strongly support” cap-and-trade with “a tax-incentive program for investing in the solutions.” He went on to say in 2009 that he might still support cap-and-trade for “the 2,000 most polluting places,” if packaged with green energy incentives. Even more disturbing than Gingrich’s support of cap-and-trade, Gingrich was paid $30,000 per month by Freddie Mac as a consultant during the subprime mortgage crisis up until it effectively became a government controlled entity. Gingrich received a total of $1.8 million from Freddie Mac as part of two contracts, one that lasted from mid-1999 to 2002 and another that lasted from 2006 until September of 2008.
NIA believes that Gingrich is largely responsible for skyrocketing health care inflation in the U.S. today. In 2003, Gingrich founded The Center for Health Transformation, which was paid dues of $200,000 per year from health insurance providers and other health care firms. Those dues would provide health care companies with “access to Newt Gingrich” and “direct Newt interaction”, which NIA looks at as bribes that were paid to Gingrich by these health care giants to pass regulations that pushed health care costs through the roof. Gingrich’s organization advocated that “anyone who earns more than $50,000 a year must purchase health insurance or post a bond.” NIA believes it is unconstitutional for the government to force Americans to buy anything. This type of distortion of the free market by Gingrich is what has helped fuel massive health care inflation for the past decade.
On September 27th when Gingrich’s support was only 0.8%, Paul was beating him with support of 2.6%. Gingrich is the latest flavor of the month. We also saw huge spikes in support for Perry and Cain before their support collapsed back to below 2% as voters figured out the truth about them. Paul is the only candidate who has never been below 2% and has enjoyed a very large and solid support base that has been growing consistently. Paul is currently second in Iowa and third nationwide and when voters realize he is the only candidate who will implement the changes that need to be made to save America from hyperinflation, Paul will be the only candidate left standing to take on Obama.
The Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism just released a study yesterday of 20 million tweets and it shows that Ron Paul is overwhelmingly viewed more positively on Twitter than all of the other Republican candidates:
After studying 20 million tweets, 55% of tweets about Ron Paul were positive while only 15% were negative. For every other Republican candidate, negative tweets outweighed positive tweets by two-to-one. The mainstream media loves Twitter and when Lindsay Lohan tweeted that she enjoyed NIA’s latest documentary, there were dozens of stories in the media about it. However, there was very little media coverage yesterday about the Pew Research Center’s findings.
Ron Paul also leads all of the other Republican candidates in Google searches. Paul is currently receiving 823,000 monthly searches on Google compared to Bachmann in second with 673,000 monthly searches and Perry in third with 550,000 monthly searches. Cain and Romney are both tied with only 246,000 monthly searches. Flavor of the month Gingrich who the media is now portraying as the potential new frontrunner has been receiving only 165,000 monthly searches, which shows that Gingrich really has no grassroots support and that his artificial support is being fueled by the mainstream media trying to manipulate the minds of voters.
Ron Paul in September won the California GOP Presidential straw poll, but it got almost no mention at all by the mainstream media. At around the same time, Herman Cain won the Florida GOP Presidential straw poll and it became the number one story on the news with the media declaring Cain a serious threat to win the nomination. If you search on Google for “Ron Paul” and “California straw poll winner” only 25,400 results appear. However, if you search on Google for “Herman Cain” and “Florida straw poll winner” you get 54,600 results.
Last night on FOX News, they kept airing commercials repeatedly for upcoming FOX News segments about Perry and what he is doing to get back into the race with Romney and Gingrich. Perry has no chance of recovering from his current support on Intrade of 2.1%. In a recent GOP debate, Perry copied both Ron Paul and NIA by talking about branches of the government that he claims he wants to eliminate. The only problem is, Perry forgot the branches of government. It became clear to all watching the debate that Perry is merely trying to recite lines that he has memorized and is not a real Presidential candidate. Paul has been talking about eliminating many branches of government for decades and when Paul speaks, you can tell he is a real genuine candidate who speaks for himself and means what he says. Perry is just a parrot and if he were elected, he would not follow through with anything he has been attempting to say.
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