WASHINGTON — Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., is in an intense struggle to save his political career, and it could be his vote against the Federal Marriage Amendment (FMA) that dooms him.

The amendment would write the definition of traditional marriage into the U.S. Constitution, thus forbidding same-sex “marriage,” polygamy and other alternatives to the family.

Despite his position as the Democrats’ Senate leader, the radically pro-abortion Daschle — a Catholic — is widely considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent senator in this year's elections.

At this stage in the election cycle, no other incumbent senators who voted against the marriage amendment appear particularly vulnerable, even though two-thirds of Americans are opposed to same-sex “marriage.”

But there is considerable potential in three other states for incumbents, all Democrats, to lose in the fall, and the marriage issue could play a key role in each of these races. Polls in all four states show voters solidly opposed to same-sex “marriage.”

And, as the New York Times reported Aug. 4, “Missouri voters’ overwhelming decision to bar gay marriage with a constitutional amendment has sent a resounding message around the country.”

“With at least nine other states expected to vote on similar amendments this fall, including four swing states in the presidential race, leaders on each side of the issue viewed Missouri's 70 percent approval of the amendment on Tuesday as a glimpse of what might lie ahead.”

Here are the races most susceptible to the combination of forces cited in the Times, including higher turn-out from Christian voters.

Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, Oregon and Utah will vote on the issue on Nov. 2. Louisiana votes on its marriage amendment Sept. 18.

Washington

Republican Rep. George Nethercutt has pulled off upsets before, which may be the only reason to believe he can knock off Sen. Patty Murray, whose missteps — including praising Osama bin Laden — should have made her vulnerable.

Nethercutt demoralized pro-family voters in the state by saying that though he opposed same-sex “marriage,” he also opposed amending the federal Constitution to stop it. Yet he is still widely expected to win the Republican primary on Sept. 14 and become the nominee to take on Murray. “Nethercutt has deenergized the Christian right,” said Bob Higley, director of Washington Evangelicals for Responsible Government (WERG). He said most active Christian pro-lifers would vote for Reed Davis in the primary. A poll of likely voters conducted June 1-3 found Murray with 49% and Nethercutt with 34%.

The Evangelicals group will spread the candidates’ positions among grassroots pro-family oraganizations, Higley said, and “the Christian Coalition will do a scorecard.” Joseph Fuiten, WERG's president, “will do pastor's picks” in coordination with other Christian pastors, Higley said. WERG is actively fighting the American Civil Liberties Union's lawsuit to force Washington to recognize same-sex “marriage” and has sent 1,800 packets to churches as part of a voter registration drive. “We've been told by the Bush people that we have the best church voter registration program in the country,” he said.

But with Nethercutt blurring the line between himself and Murray, it will be much harder to get the grass-roots out for him in November, especially given the hopelessness felt by many pro-family voters. “I talk to people, and they think it's in the hands of the courts. So they don't do anything,” said Dan Kennedy, CEO of Human Life of Washington, which keeps its members up-to-date on life and family issues.

California

Sen. Barbara Boxer's anti-family record is extreme even for California, and the recent upheavals in California politics — including the election of Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger — introduces more uncertainty into the state.

But so far, her moderately pro-life, pro-marriage Republican opponent Bill Jones, a former California secretary of state, has not gained traction. A poll of likely voters conducted July 23-25 found 54% for Boxer and 35% for Jones.

“Bill Jones has signed the Marriage Protection Pledge,” said Randy Thomasson, executive director of the Campaign for California Families. He said that his group will use its extensive e-mail and fax list to motivate grassroots pro-family groups in the state. He noted that 61% of Californians in 2000 voted to ban same-sex “marriages” in their state. But, he said, Jones has not used social issues such as abortion and marriage in his campaign. “He needs to do more,” he said.

Until Jones decides what issues to promote in his campaign, Thomasson said, it's unclear how much of a role Christian leaders will play in promoting the marriage issue in the race. And if socially liberal Schwarzenegger takes a leading role in promoting Jones, the latter may choose to ignore the Republicans’ Christian base.

Arkansas

This highly pro-family Southern state should be fertile ground for anyone dedicated to defeating a senator who voted against protecting marriage, but Sen. Blanche Lincoln seems safe — so far. Her opponent, state Sen. Jim Holt, is little known statewide.

It remains to be seen how the marriage issue will play in the race, said Chris Stewart, executive director of the Arkansas Marriage Amendment Committee, which has succeeded in placing a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex “marriage” and civil unions on the November ballot. That may attract pro-family voters to the polls, as it did in Missouri.

“It's clear that the same-sex marriage debate is what separates these candidates,” Stewart said. “Holt has drawn a clear line. He has drawn her out on that.” Lincoln supports the state constitutional amendment, saying that marriage should not be a federal issue. A poll of likely voters conducted July 13-15 found Lincoln with 57% and Holt with 33%.

Stewart said the message is going out to Arkansas Christian pro-lifers about the differences between Holt and Lincoln.

But that's not the key, he said. “He's got to reach the middle-ofthe-road voters. He needs money.” Bush won Arkansas by only four points in 2000, and so the presidential race could be hot in the state, which would mean more discussion of the marriage issue. Said Stewart, “This is a sleeper issue that can help a weak candidate win an election.”

Joseph A. D'Agostino writes from Washington, D.C.