WASHINGTON — If Republicans want to keep pro-family voters on their side, they have a funny way of showing it.

President Bush virtually signs off on a plan to allow the contraception pill Plan B over the counter.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, running for re-election as governor of California, signs a bill that would deny state funding to schools unless they promote the homosexual agenda.

Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell, also running for re-election, supports embryonic stem-cell research and civil unions for same-sex partners.

In a year when the Republican majority in Congress is threatened — thereby jeopardizing Bush’s chance to get another pro-life judge confirmed on the Supreme Court should there be another opening — the GOP is losing the support of its conservative, faith-motivated base.

The “values voters” who helped Bush clinch the 2004 election victory may help sweep some Republicans out of office this fall.

The number of Catholics and Christians who consider the party friendly to religion has dropped below 50% in the last year, according to survey results released Aug. 24 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The poll showed the number of people who consider the GOP friendly to religion dropped from 55% a year ago to 47%, with a 14-point drop among white evangelical conservatives and an 11-point drop among white Catholics.

Can the party recover?

Republicans must be unabashedly pro-life, anti-homosexual “marriage” and pro-conservative judge if they’re to maintain the enthusiastic support of Catholics and other Christians in the midterm election this November, said political analysts who spoke to the Register.

“Republicans must come out strong on the defining social issues that make it clear to Christians what the difference is between the Republican and Democratic parties,” said Joe Cella, chairman of Fidelis, a Catholic organization working with Christians across the country to promote the sanctity of life, traditional marriage and religious liberty. “Christians are pro-Republican because of their clear stance on the key moral issues, and Republicans must be certain those lines don’t get blurred.”

Cella said the Republican base of Christian conservatives may have temporarily lost some enthusiasm for the GOP because of sluggish progress on the confirmation of federal circuit court judges, and failure to ban homosexual “marriage” and human embryonic stem-cell research.

Generate Anger

Democrats, however, didn’t see an increase in trust from the faithful, with poll results showing that 26% of religious voters consider the Democratic Party friendly to religions, which hasn’t changed from a year ago.

“What we’re seeing is probably a temporary feeling of disenfranchisement by Christian conservatives,” said Gene Ulm, a Catholic and partner in the Washington, D.C.-based Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies.

Ulm said the GOP’s dip in support from Christians simply reflects an overall hardship felt, or perceived, by most American voters after a summer of high gas prices, international tensions and a sluggish economy.

“We’re finding that it’s not really associated with one or two issues, but a broader set of circumstances that are affecting everyone,” Ulm told the Register. “Attitudes toward the war in Iraq have declined across the board, and that includes conservative Christians. People, particularly in the upper Midwest, are worried about their jobs, the price of gasoline is high, and the overall economy has people upset. The Republican base has not been immune from these factors, so it’s just not terribly enthusiastic right now.”

Ulm said as November approaches, politicians at all levels throughout the country will begin to reinvigorate the base by reminding Christians of the social issues at stake.

“You’ll start to see a lot of efforts to generate anger among the Republican base that will match the level of anger the secular community has toward the Bush administration,” Ulm said. “Republicans will be talking about the key social issues, the bread-and-butter contracts that separate Republicans from Democrats. In this election it will be homosexual ‘marriage,’ abortion, euthanasia and guns.”

Ulm said abortion remains the top asset in the GOP’s arsenal, when it comes to solidifying its Christian conservative base.

“Some Republicans complain that the abortion issue has polarized voters, but ever since it became a decisive issue separating Republicans from Democrats, going back to Reagan, Republicans have mostly controlled Congress and state legislatures, and they’ve won most gubernatorial races,” Ulm said. “Abortion is a winning issue for Republicans, and if they hold firm on it they will continue to win elections.”

Democrats for Life

Kristen Day, chairwoman of Democrats for Life, said she and a growing number of other Democrats are working hard to make sure lines that separate Republicans and Democrats blur on the abortion issue.

“Back in 2002, Democratic leaders wouldn’t return my calls,” Day said. “Today, they’re calling me in to talk. I do believe the Democratic leadership understands that the abortion issue is hurting them.”

Day, author of the new book Democrats For Life: Pro-life Politics and the Silent Majority, believes Christians who voted for Republicans in the past may be tiring of voting for Republicans who promise pro-life victories but achieve unsatisfactory levels of long-term success.

“The GOP has been promising to overturn Roe v. Wade for decades, which is a laudable goal, and they’ve won elections on that promise,” Day said. “But they haven’t gotten it done, and I think that troubles a lot of people.”

Day said her organization, with the help of pro-life Democrats in Congress, is telling voters about the 95-10 Initiative, also known as the Pregnant Women’s Support Act, which seeks to reduce abortions by 95% over the next 10 years.

“This bill sets forth measures to support pregnant women and mothers,” Day said. It would force health care providers to cover the costs of labor and delivery, which Day said can cost $25,000 in some cases, even with health insurance. It would also force state and federal government healthcare plans to cover the costs of labor and delivery.

“We are seeing the success of more and more pro-life Democrats, and that’s going to affect a key issue for Republicans,” Day said.

In Colorado, for example, some pro-life Catholics are torn over the gubernatorial race — which pits U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, a pro-life Catholic Republican, against former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter, a pro-life Catholic Democrat. Ritter has a strong lead in the polls.

“Democrats have usually defended abortion, and it has made my voting decisions very easy,” said Cindy Davis, a Catholic from Denver. “In this election, Catholics feel like they can vote either way.”

Ulm said Republicans in Colorado may need to focus attention on other key social issues, such as gun rights and homosexual “marriage.” Ritter favors homosexual marriage and gun control; Beauprez opposes them.

Core Values

Cella said he welcomes a change of heart by Democrats on the abortion issue, but said the party as a whole has a long way to go before winning any meaningful loyalty from conservative Catholics and evangelicals.

“Post 2004, the Democratic Party recognized its vulnerability with religious voters and has been trying to find ways to talk better about Jesus,” Cella said. “But they won’t capture the votes of true Christians until the party changes its core values and beliefs. There are glimmers of hope, but the Democrats have a long way to go.

“Christian conservatives are well aware that if the Democratic Party wrests control of both chambers of Congress, that means Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader and Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House,” Cella continued. “That also means there is exactly zero prospect of advancing legislation that defends the sanctity of life or traditional marriage, and our efforts to confirm judges who respect the rule of law will come to a halt.”

Wayne Laugesen is based in Boulder, Colorado.