CARACAS, Venezuela — A nonviolence agreement between the government of Hugo Chavez and his opposition will not change anything in the months-long crisis in Venezuela, said the president of the country's bishops’ conference.

What is needed, Archbishop Baltasar Porras of Mérida bluntly said, is “a change of leaders.”

In fact, only 24 hours after the agreement on Feb. 19, while the media were still celebrating the first “breakthrough” in the stalemate between “chavistas” and “antichavistas” (those for and against Chavez), facts seemed to prove Archbishop Porras right: The bodies of three dissident Venezuelan soldiers and an opposition activist were found with bullet wounds and signs of torture.

The nonviolence agreement was reached between the government and the opposition after 100 days of harsh negotiations. It came after two and a half months of a national strike, which had severely interrupted oil production, and massive street demonstrations aimed at getting the leftist leader to step down. A failed coup last April briefly ousted Chavez.

“I was not surprised that Archbishop Porras was right in his prediction,” said Hilarión Cardozo, former minister of justice of Venezuela and a veteran in Venezuelan politics who has also been a congressman and senator for the Christian Democratic Party.

In fact, in the confrontation between Chavez and “anti-chavistas,” the president has rejected any attempt to bring in the bishops as mediators despite the Church's high level of credibility.

Chavez, a former paratrooper, was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000 for a longer period under a new constitution he tailored to his plans for a “new revolution.” He then promised to wipe out the corruption of previous governments and redistribute the country's vast oil wealth to the poor majority.

“Chavez is delivering a true revolution, but it is not yet bearing the desired fruits because of the corrupt alliance of powerful enemies,” said Congressman Willian Lara, a loyal “chavista.”

Asked if he thought the bishops were part of the alleged “corrupt alliance,” he responded: “At least I don't see them [the bishops] speaking against it. … They should be defending the revolution because it is deeply Christian.”

But Chavez's critics charge that his revolution has increased inflation 5%, raised unemployment 5% and increased poverty 9% since he took office.

“The only thing in which he has been efficient is in grabbing authoritarian control over the congress and the judiciary and splitting the country along class lines,” said Carlos Fernández, president of the Venezuelan Federation of Entrepreneurs “Fedecámaras” in an interview with the Register.

Three days after the brief phone interview, Fernández was arrested Feb. 20, accused of “sabotaging the economy.” Under the Chavez-controlled judiciary, he faces up to 20 years in prison for being one of the strike leaders.

Referendum

The opposition has gathered more than 4.4 million signatures to demand a constitutional amendment to cut Chavez's term from six to four years. Under the constitution, signatures of 15% of the country's registered voters, which would be about 1.8 million voters, are needed in order to force a referendum on the amendment.

Nevertheless, with the help of the federal judiciary, Chavez has already blocked a first attempt to hold the referendum in February.

Chavez cannot avoid an August referendum on his popularity according to his own constitution. But he has not yet made clear whether he will consider its result binding or insist on remaining in power until 2006.

“Positions are being exasperated in such a way that whatever happens in August, one faction of Venezuelans will blame the other side and a generalized explosion of violence is very likely,” Cardozo said. “And the bishops know that very well.”

In fact, on Jan. 27, in the midst of a climate of increasing violence and confrontation, the bishops’ conference started its 79th general assembly with a dramatic description of the situation.

“If a way to dialogue is not found, the consequences will be devastating,” Archbishop Porras said as he presented his yearly report.

In its final message, the episcopate indirectly referred to Chavez's stubbornness to justify his permanence in government with the constitution. “The written law can become a dead letter if it is not at the service of human beings,” the bishops stated.

“We want to recall Jesus’ message: ‘Blessed are those who work for peace, for they will be called children of God,’” they added. “Today, Venezuela is in urgent need of children of God, willing to come with brave, creative alternatives to the current course of confrontation.”

Mediation

The bishops once again offered Church mediation, despite the fact that a few days before their assembly, the Department of Religions in the Ministry of Justice sent them an official letter urging them to “refrain from partisan political involvement and political proselytism.”

“This is a not-very-subtle threat to our independent voice,” said Cardinal Antonio Ignacio Velasco, archbishop of Caracas, in a declaration to the local “Unión” Radio. “But we will not be intimidated by these tactics, and we will continue to contact all sectors in an effort to find a path for reconciliation.”

Since the bishops have been ruled out from the dialogue as “part of the opposition,” Archbishop André Dupuy, the Apostolic Nuncio in Venezuela, has been playing an unusually key role.

Archbishop Dupuy attracted national attention last December when he commented, “With all due respect, I believe that rules and laws have been created to serve the people, not the other way around.” The nuncio was making reference to Chavez's insistence that his constitution must be respected at all costs.

On Feb. 19, during the installation of José Morón Hidalgo as bishop of Acarigua, Archbishop Dupuy said that “mutual attacks and violent repression will not help in consolidating Venezuela's democracy.”

He also said the country “should be proud, when thousands of people go out to the streets to demonstrate peacefully,” thus contradicting Chavez's claims that even peaceful marches are a “disruption to democracy.”

“What will happen in the near future? I don't think anyone can answer that question now,” Cardozo said. “I can only say that the future looks quite gloomy.”

Alejandro Bermúdez is based in Lima, Peru.