What’s in Store for the Senate After Roy Moore’s Defeat?

The GOP’s reduced majority makes passage of pro-life measures more difficult, but confirmations of the president’s judicial nominees are expected to proceed.

Democratic Senator-elect Doug Jones speaks Dec. 13 in Birmingham, Alabama.
Democratic Senator-elect Doug Jones speaks Dec. 13 in Birmingham, Alabama. (photo: Photo by Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — The Alabama special election that sent Doug Jones, a Democrat, to the U.S. Senate may either mark the beginning of a tumultuous election cycle or it could just be a blip for the Republican Party in what is still one of the most conservative states in the country.

Strategists for both major parties, pro-life activists and political analysts have different takes on what Jones’ victory means for the GOP and President Donald Trump’s agenda, but they agree that Jones won because he ran against a flawed Republican candidate in Roy Moore, a figure whose campaign was marred by decades-old allegations of inappropriate behavior with teenage girls when Moore was a prosecutor in his 30s.

“As difficult as it is to give up that Senate seat, the cost of having that seat for the Republicans would probably have been far higher,” said Deal Hudson, former Catholic outreach director for the Republican National Committee. Hudson told the Register that a Moore victory would have meant two years of nonstop negative media coverage, not to mention the probable “made-for-TV movie.”

“We didn’t really need that level of distraction for the Republican Party or for the Trump administration,” said Hudson, who doesn’t think Jones’ victory will hinder the GOP’s ability to enact legislation or confirm the president’s nominees to the federal judiciary.

But other observers disagree, noting that Jones joining the Senate will cut the Republicans’ already thin majority to 51 seats in the 100-seat chamber. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will not be able to afford to lose more than two members of his caucus on crucial votes, a difficult task underscored by the Republicans’ failed efforts in 2017 to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.

“I don’t think they’re going to get anything done in the next year at all. They may get tax reform done, but that’s about it,” said John White, a political science professor at The Catholic University of America.

White told the Register that he expects Jones to be a reliable vote for Democratic leaders in the Senate, arguing that the president has not been able to convince moderate or conservative Democrats such as Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia to cross the aisle on important votes for the GOP.

“Trump has given these Democrats from red states no incentive to cross over — none,” said White, who added that the Senate may see significant turnover in 2018, with expected retirements and the midterm elections. And considering the president’s approval rating being below 35%, White argued the Republican Party has a tough road ahead.

“We’re not talking about a president with a 60% job approval that can come in and move his agenda in a way that social conservatives might like, but also in a way that the country as a whole might like,” White said. “When your job approval is in the 30s, nobody is afraid of you.”

 

Abortion and Judicial Appointments

For pro-life activists, Jones’ victory in the Dec. 12 special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by U.S. Attorney Gen. Jeff Sessions was an undeniable setback. Jones ran on a platform of defending legalized abortion. He told MSNBC in late September that he opposes a ban on abortions after the 20th week of gestation, the point that pro-life leaders say the unborn child can feel pain in the womb.

“Doug Jones is an abortion radical. There is no mistake where he stands on this issue,” said Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life of America.

Adding that she understands voters’ concerns with Moore, Hawkins told the Register that Moore would have at least been “a champion against abortion in the Senate.” With Moore’s defeat, Hawkins said the pro-life community lost a crucial Senate vote to strip Planned Parenthood of its federal funding.

“Our work just got way more difficult,” said Hawkins, who argued that Jones’ victory also makes it more unlikely that the Senate will pass its own version of the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, a measure to ban abortions after the 20th week of gestation. The House passed the legislation in October.

Legislating pro-life measures may be more difficult, but another point of concern for pro-lifers — appointing pro-life judges to the federal judiciary — may not be as hampered by Jones’ election, several political analysts told the Register.

“The Republicans still have a 51-seat majority. As long as Trump appoints reasonable people, not Roy Moore types but Neil Gorsuch types, then he’ll get a handful of Democrat votes and losing the Alabama seat is not going to matter that much,” said Geoffrey Layman, a political science professor at the University of Notre Dame.

With some high-profile exceptions, the Trump administration, with the help of Senate Republicans, has been very successful in getting its judicial nominees confirmed. In the president’s first year in office, the Senate confirmed 12 appeals court judges, a modern record, according to CNN.

“The Republican Party and Trump have reshaped the federal judiciary,” White said. “They’re going to continue to attempt to do as much as they can on that score through 2018, with the possibility that the Democratic Party gains control of the U.S. Senate.”

 

Other Impacts

But apart from the judiciary, Layman told the Register that Jones’ victory impacts the Republican leadership’s ability to move other agenda items, such as entitlement reform.

“They’ve had plenty of difficulty accomplishing anything on their agenda in the first place, with 52 Republican seats,” Layman said. “They’ve also had a pretty difficult time keeping the entire caucus together. The wiggle room has been pretty limited, and this just makes it even more limited.”

Hawkins said the GOP’s prospects of passing its agenda, including any pro-life legislation, likely depends on future elections.

“Now, we’re looking at the 2018 election, with hopes of getting anything done,” said Hawkins, who suggested that the GOP’s prospects are not great for keeping or expanding its Senate majority, given the party’s inability to carry out its promises to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare.”

Still, a lot can change politically before the 2018 midterm elections next November. But early signs do not bode well for the Republicans, said White, who noted that the GOP in 2017 lost the gubernatorial race and control of the state Legislature in Virginia.

“We have indications of a wave building, not only based on what happened in Alabama, but based also on what happened in Virginia, as well,” White said.

However, Jones’ victory in Alabama may be short-lived. Alabama is still a solid red state: Trump garnered the support of nearly 63% of voters there in the 2016 presidential election. Several observers expect the Republicans to recapture Jones’ Senate seat when he is up for re-election in 2020.

“We have two years to wait, then we’ll have that seat back,” Hudson said.

“My instinct is that Doug Jones knows he’s a two-year senator,” Layman said. “The idea that a Democrat can win a statewide election in Alabama under any set of normal circumstances is really unfathomable.”

Stephen Schneck, a Catholic University of America political science professor who served as co-chairman of Catholics for Obama, told the Register that the Alabama election was “pretty much a wash” for pro-life voters and others concerned with religious-freedom issues.

“Jones, even though he is pro-choice personally, will need to be very attentive to the conservative values of Alabama,” Schneck said. “Moreover, Roy Moore would have been a black eye and loose cannon for the GOP and conservatives nationally.”

In 2018, the Senate will be losing Republicans Bob Corker of Tennessee and Jeff Flake of Arizona to retirement. Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain, 81, of Arizona is battling brain cancer, and Sen. Thad Cochran, 80, of Mississippi has been recently hospitalized for various health problems that include having to remove a non-melanoma lesion from his nose.

Overall, though, these known and potential Republican losses of incumbents are counterbalanced by the fact that the Democrats have far more seats at stake in 2018 than do the Republicans, as they currently hold 26 of the 34 seats to be contested in November.

Other changes in store for the Senate include the Jan. 2 resignation of Democratic Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota over sexual-misconduct allegations. Franken is expected to be replaced by Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, also a Democrat, so the political balance in the Senate will likely be unaffected.

Schneck said Franken’s resignation will likely encourage Democrats to make sexual harassment a key argument in their efforts to push back against the president, who was himself accused of misconduct during the 2016 election.

“This will also mean that the Democrats will make issues associated with women a top-level focus for the 2018 elections,” Schneck said.

As for Jones, Layman said voters should expect him to be a moderate Senate Democrat. In post-election media interviews, Jones vowed to work with lawmakers from both sides of the aisle and said he does not believe Trump should resign over sexual-harassment complaints.

“I don’t think you’re gonna see him on the front lines pushing for ‘LGBT’ rights, loosening abortion rights even further, or calling for huge increases in single-payer health care. That’s not the kind of Democrat he is,” Layman said, though adding that Jones will likely still vote with Democrats to oppose most of what the Republicans try to push through the Senate.

But Hudson said Jones also will have to be mindful of his liberal supporters, suggesting he “played his cards to receive support” from the Democratic Party faithful that supported former President Barack Obama and 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Said Hudson, “So if he wants to have any kind of future at all in anything, he has to remain focused on those policies that he campaigned on, including his pro-abortion policies.”

Register correspondent Brian Fraga writes from Fall River, Massachusetts.