WASHINGTON — With polls still disagreeing on which presidential candidate holds the lead just one day before the election, political analysts believe Catholics will continue to be an influential indicator of what the general electorate will decide.
“The Catholic vote, like any number of votes, does have the potential to make an impact,” said Gregory Smith, a senior researcher who specializes in Catholic politics at the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion and Public Life.
While they do not vote as a unified group, Catholics are significant in elections because of their large numbers, making up approximately one in four U.S. voters, he said.
Final polling numbers show a neck-and-neck competition between President Barack Obama and Republican contender Mitt Romney. Both Catholic voters and the general electorate are closely divided in their support of the candidates as the final days of the campaign come to a close.
On Nov. 4, just two days before the election, Pew released its final pre-election survey, showing Obama with a three-point lead over Romney among likely voters. Among Catholics, however, Romney held a two-point lead over the president.
Despite this discrepancy, Smith told Catholic News Agency Nov. 5 that Catholics still resemble the general electorate more closely than most other religious groups, such as Jews and evangelical Protestants. Both Catholics and Americans as a whole are very closely divided, he explained.
In such a close election, “small changes on the margins” can have “important consequences,” he added, noting that Catholics are one of several groups who could be influential in determining the outcome of the election.
With trends among religious voters remaining relatively similar to those in recent years, Smith said it is difficult to pinpoint what effect the contraception mandate and religious-freedom issues are having on the Catholic vote this year.
Catholics, along with other Americans, have indicated that jobs and the economy are the issues they see as most important in this election, he explained.
At the same time, Smith added, most Catholics who have heard of the mandate say that they agree with the bishops’ concerns, “so there is that sentiment out there.”
In a recent Pew survey, about one-third of Catholics said that they had heard members of the clergy speaking about religious-freedom issues, a slightly higher number than members of other religions.
The survey found that about 60% of Catholics have heard from the clergy about abortion and about 80% have heard about hunger and poverty, he noted, adding that there is not enough data to determine how each of these factors influenced the vote of the faithful.
Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, said that, as a group, Catholics “tend to go slightly for the Democratic candidate,” a trend that is tied to the Church’s increasing Hispanic population.
Newport said that Gallup’s latest numbers show Romney leading 49-48 among the general electorate, with likely Catholic voters favoring Obama by a margin of 52-45.
While it is not yet clear what the Catholic turnout in the election will be, Newport said there is a good possibility that Hispanic Catholics will follow the general Hispanic trend of producing a lower turnout than the general population, while non-Hispanic Catholics will likely vote at about the same rates as the general electorate.
Newport believes that the changing composition of the Church means that overall the Catholic turnout will likely be below average.
Mary Gray, a researcher at Georgetown University’s Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate, thinks the various polls in recent weeks do not lead to a clear conclusion, making the Catholic vote “too close to call.”
Gray explained in an Oct. 26 blog post for the research center that this election is so close that it may be impossible to tell with certainty who won the Catholic vote. This happened in both 1988 and 2004 because polls disagreed on which candidate prevailed among Catholics.
Gray has worked throughout the past months to aggregate data from various polls that include a religious breakdown in order to observe trends in the Catholic vote.
In the final days before the election, Gray observed that “President Obama has an edge among registered voters, but loses this advantage among likely voters.”
Like other analysts, Gray believes the turnout among different Catholic subgroups will determine who wins the vote of this group.
Surveys have indicated that Hispanics and young voters will once again have a lower turnout than the average electorate, while Catholic subgroups that tend to lean Republican are more likely to vote, which “may give Governor Romney an edge in the end.”
Gray predicted that although the results of the general election and the Catholic vote remain too close to call, “the Catholic vote will likely maintain its bellwether status and follow the popular vote closely.”
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There is so much wrong with this article. Where to begin? Basically, your analysis is completely off base and will be disproved tomorrow.
If the Catholic vote is ” too close to call” then someone is not doing their job!
The Catholic vote mentiond in the article is not a “good indicator” of any thing. In fact it shows that the Catholic vote is in accordance with the secular vote of our general society and not in accordance with the Magisterium of the Catholic Church. It shows thre has been a shortage of instruction by Bishops and clergy to assist sincere Catholics to form a valid conscience.It also shows we have a small group of practising Catholics and many other groups of fallen away Catholics who support other beliefs.I believe they are called heretics which is a word not frequently heard.I believe in evangelization. The fallen away persons should be confronted and asked to repent now or stop calling themselves Catholics. We don’t need multiple Catholic Churches with each flooding newspapers with their erronious beliefs. If the true Church gets smaller this will only be temporary for it will grow and become stronger again with more devoted paticipants. The Catholic Catechism should be used in parish instruction groups to minimize the effect of some of of our university theologian thinkers who have a lot of free time to think how the Church should improve what has been handed down to us over the past 2000 years.
‘While they do not vote as a unified group, Catholics are significant in elections because of their large numbers, making up approximately one in four U.S. voters, he said.”
I rather suspect the same thing could be said about brown-haired people or people whose favorite color is blue.
If a person is TRULY a Catholic, they cannot vote for Obama….he is for death and is in bed with Planned Parenthood, who is tied up with Susan B Komen, who supposedly works to defeat breast cancer. Abortions have been proven to cause breast cancer, so around and around it goes.
Judie, good point.
From Canada, all I can say is if you AMericans dont’ want a candidate so pro-life and competent as Romney and Ryan, send him to us!!! YOu must be mad to even consider the other side,,total militant abortion!,,anti-black, a-or -irreligious, anti-religious freedom,etc,, we know it all. Catholics , what is the problem?!!!, and so many areligious sister voting for Obama?,, if his priorities are yours, why not be honest enough to leave?
well ,it just goes to show another GOOD REASON ,why i switched along with many other catholics to being simply christians an or protestant.its a fact that most protestants practice what the bible teaches an vote overwhelmingly against a president who not only supports abortion an now is pro gay marraige.i believe that the the large majority of catholics are bible iliterate,an its showing.im not bashing the catholic church because they do believe in the ESSENTIALS of christianity,bu tbecause they fail miserably at times in DOGMA an DOCTRINES that some just dont align with scripture. finally they at least sent out phamplets to the churches.obama attacked the catholics an the cath church is suing the obama admin ,yet they still vote dem more.unbelievable!!!
Bob - you left the One True Church that Jesus, Himself, established. You are not getting the Eucharist; the true body, blood, soul and divinity of our Lord in any other Christian church. Jesus established ONE Church- Martin Luther, etc. started the other churches (1500 years later none-the-less). There are only sinners in any church as no one is perfect and just because you can quote the Bible verse by verse, does not make you any more of a Christian than anyone else. You should come back to the Church Jesus established because it is only what He thinks that matters….
It would be great if all Catholics looked at the Party Platforms. Here’s a quote from the 2012 Democratic Party Platform on abortion, “The Democratic Party strongly and unequivocally supports Roe v. Wade and a woman’s right to make decisions regarding her pregnancy, including a safe and legal abortio, regardless of ability to pay. We oppose any and all efforts to weaken or undermine that right.”
Here’s a quote from the 2012 Democratic Party Platform on marriage, “We support marriage equality and support the movement to secure equal treatment under law for same-sex couples.”
So, in their own words, the Democratic Party is both pro-abortion and pro-same-sex marriage. Because these positions are both against Catholic teaching and non-negotiable (Catechism of the Catholic Church 2270-2274, and 2357-2359), it’s like the Democrats don’t care about the true Catholic vote (those who attend mass regularly and believe Church Doctrine).
Night of election, still shaking my head over Catholics who vote for Obama. How can they receive the Eucherist in good faith? Supporting a man who supports gay marriage, abortion-including the barbaric late-term abortion, AND Obama-care which essentially mandates Catholic institutions pay for insurance covering birth control and abortions. Geez. I fear for my country.
for all those Catholics that waited in line to vote for Obama - please go wait in line for Confession this Saturday; you’ve ruined the soul of this country, please don’t leave your own soul in ruins
Election results 2012. Catholics - 0; Democrat Party - 1.
I am a Catholic, and I voted for Barack Obama.
To me he’s the candidate who stands up for “Human Rights”. He works with the poor and disabled. He creates jobs for those who have lost hope, and he is working for the common man who has somehow lost their voice over the 8 years GW Bush has been in office. And has made a good difference where the Evangelical voice has failed to do so.
The Catholic Priests in some churches have been so discriminatory against Obama because of his stand on human rights including women’s health and safety laws, affordable healthcare for those who can’t afford it any longer, and you have gone as far as to call him “evil” by promoting Mitt Romney is the one who Catholics should vote for because he represents the right side of God.
MItt Romney has always been a moderate in this regard until the right had him change is platform. Mitt Romney is a liar, and that is why he lost. He didn’t represent mankind, he is the voice for the rich, the powerful, and the very ones who have been responsible for the oppression of human rights, lost of jobs,
military might for oil and material waste, and death.
I prayed to God, may the honest man win. May the man who stands up for the commoner who needs a voice win, and may the man who reaches across the world in message and example in a loving, compassionate, and universal kindness of message for hope, win. May the man most likely to walk on this earth like Jesus did with no judgement, win.
It’s been the ugliest campaign the right has ever run. You strong armed your congregation by letting people know God’s choice is Romney, not Obama. And you even had your priest upset the congregation into thinking that Romney is for God, Obama is the other candidate for who?
You didn’t set a holy agenda, you set your own and your lost heart. You lost your voice.
May God bless America. And may we now be able to move forward to love all our fellow men, women, and children no matter where they live, how they live, and why they live..
Andrea Renee Hall
ONLY GOD IS JUDGE. NOT YOU.
A.R.H. if you really are a church going Catholic, then you are the poster child for the spiritual brainlessness the USCCB’s Faithful Citizenship produces enabling you and all too many other Catholics to vote for a fraud like Obama.
Correction.
The winning record of the recent contest posted above should read: Catholic Church - 0; Democrat Party - 1.
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